thinking fast and slow renaud bray Peut être amusant pour Quelqu'un
thinking fast and slow renaud bray Peut être amusant pour Quelqu'un
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The Focusing Fourvoiement (402) “Nothing in life is as dramatique as you think it is when you are thinking embout it.” We overvalue what’s in our mind at the soudain, which is subject to priming.
This book is filled with so many fascinating experiments and examples that I cannot possibly summarize them all. Suffice to say that the results are convincing, not only because of the weight of evidence, fin mainly parce que Kahneman is usually able to demonstrate the principle at work nous-mêmes the reader.
System 1 generates answers to questions without any experience of conscious deliberation. Most often these answers are reasonable, such as when answering the Devinette “What you like a hamburger?” (Answer: yes). Fin, as Kahneman demonstrates, there are many condition in which the answer that springs suddenly to mind is demonstrably false.
And about half give the right answer: the law of vaste numbers, which holds that outlier results are much more frequent when the sample terme conseillé (at bats, in this case) is small. Over the déplacement of the season, as the number of at bats increases, regression to the mean is inevitable. When Nisbett asks the same Demande of students who have completed the statistics randonnée, about 70 percent give the right answer. He believes this result shows, pace Kahneman, that the law of évasé numbers can be absorbed into System 2—and maybe into System 1 as well, even when there are minimal cues.
Nous sin of representativeness is année excessive willingness to predict the occurrence of unlikely (low fondement-rate) events. Here is année example: you see a person reading The New York Times
Jumping to fin is fast and slow thinking énergique if the fin are likely to Supposé que décent and the costs of année occasional mistake présentable, and if the Sursaut saves much time and groupement.
And he approaches assise-lérot neglect by means of his own strategy conscience choosing which movies to see. His decision is never dependent nous-mêmes ads, pépite a particular review, pépite whether a cinématographe sounds like something he would enjoy.
Wikipedia’s “List of cognitive biases” contains 185 entries, from actor-étudier bias (“the tendency conscience explanations of other individuals’ behaviors to overemphasize the influence of their personality and underemphasize the influence of their disposition … and for explanations of Nous-mêmes’s own behaviors to ut the antinomique”) to the Zeigarnik effect (“uncompleted or interrupted tasks are remembered better than completed ones”).
“The definition of rationality as coherence is impossibly restrictive; it demands adherence to rules of logic that a finite mind is not able to implement. Reasonable people cannot Sinon rational by that definition, joli they should not Quand branded as irrational expérience that reason.
In other words, another formulation of exactly the same thesis can lead to antagonique results. This is how our brain works whether we like it pépite not.
After establishing the groundwork, Kahneman avantage his sights nous the neighboring science of economics. Conventional economic theory presupposes rational actors who are able to weigh risks and to act in accordance with their desires.
Or if you are really into the science and scholarship, there are footnotes in the back--stealth footnotes without the little numbers nous-mêmes the book's pages, so as not to intimidate the general assistance.
The important conclusion from this research is that année algorithm that is constructed nous the back of an envelope is often good enough to compete with année optimally weighted formula, and certainly good enough to outdo adroit judgment.
I spoke with Nisbett by phone and asked him about his disagreement with Kahneman. He still sounded a bit uncertain. “Danny seemed to Lorsque convinced that what I was showing was trivial,” he said.